Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

The analysis of the build-up of risks in emerging economies have traditionally been scarce and focused mostly on external risks, despite the recent substantial development of their financial system. This paper builds an index of financial vulnerabilities tailored to emerging economies, grouping 32 indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. It adopts a model-free approach, purposely departing from early warning models or complex econometric constructs, and rely on data made already available by international organisations. Our index of financial vulnerabilities enables a granular mapping of where risk originates and how it spreads to other parts of the financial system. Using various data visualisation tools and benefitting from the flexibility of our index’s methodology, we are able build a narrative of the evolution of financial stability in emerging economies from 2005 to 2015. Finally, we also discuss the relation between our index and both the business cycle (proxied by GDP) and the credit cycle (proxied by the credit-to-GDP gap).     

The impact of shareholders and creditors rights on IPO performance: An international study

This paper examines the impact of cross-country variation in shareholders' and debt holders' rights on post-IPO performance and survival of newly listed stocks across the globe. Using a sample of 10,490 initial public offerings (IPOs) in 40 countries between 2000 and 2013, we find that post-IPO performance and survival is better in countries with stronger shareholder protection, but the impact of creditor protection is negative i.e. stronger creditor protection leads to poor post-IPO performance and survival. This effect is driven by rules requiring creditors’ consent for company reorganization and the mandatory replacement of incumbent managers. Reputable IPO advisors exacerbate the positive impact of shareholder rights and the negative impact of creditor rights.     

“Opt out” or kept out? The effect of stigma,structure, selection,and sector on the labor force participation of married women in India

Using the 61st and 68th rounds of National Sample Survey data, we investigate the role of stigma, the economy’s structure, potential selection bias, and sectoral differences in explaining the low labor force participation (LFP) of middle and secondary educated women in India relative to low‐ and high‐educated women (the “U‐shape”). Estimating LFP regressions on a sample of prime‐aged married women, we show that, controlling for background characteristics, if a woman’s husband works in a white‐collar job in a region with a high share of blue‐collar jobs, she is less likely to participate in the labor market (stigma). We also find a positive effect of an increase in an index of white‐collar job growth (structure) on married women’s LFP. These effects are present in both rural and urban sectors but are strongest in the rural sector. However, middle and secondary educated women are still found to have substantially lower LFP than low‐ and graduate‐educated women in both sectors. Indeed, over time, the U‐shape persists in the rural sector and deepens in the urban sector. Because unobservables are quite large in the urban sector, we use the method of instrumental variables and find an increasing return at middle levels but stagnation at higher levels.     

我国火力发电行业SO2排放许可限值约束作用研究

2017年,我国环保部门完成了火力发电等行业的排污许可证的核发,对我国建设排污权交易制度和实现“一证式”环境管理体制具有重要意义。围绕排污许可证中污染物的排放许可限值展开研究,应用脱钩原理对我国2003—2017年火力发电行业SO2排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系进行分析,并基于脱钩理论,结合灰色预测方法GM(1,1)并运用情景假设法分析评价了排污许可证对我国2018—2020年火力发电行业SO2排放的约束作用强弱及其合理性,并提出建议。     

济南市古生物化石赋存特征及保护区划研究

为贯彻《古生物化石保护条例》,提高济南市古生物化石保护水平,在对区内古生物化石资源进行野外勘查和综合整理的基础上,依据古生物化石鉴定结果及其赋存地层分布特征,得出济南市古生物化石的分布特征,划分了古生物化石产地,选择化石完整程度、富集程度、剖面出露程度、周边地质环境、工程活动影响五个评价因子,运用综合指数法,建立了符合济南实际的古生物化石保护区划分体系,将区内古生物化石产地进行了保护区分级,并按照“保护优先,结合实际”的原则,制定了符合济南市实际的古生物化石保护措施。     

Early warning indicators? The effect of consumer and investor sentiments on the restaurant industry

This study looks at the influence of cyclical fluctuations of the consumer confidence index (CCI) and the volatility index (VIX) as early-warning indicators of the variations in restaurant performance. The industry has traditionally focused on past data and on microeconomic influences to anticipate its future performance, a procedure that does not consider possible cyclical fluctuations in restaurant performance metrics. These fluctuations are driven by sentiments of consumers and investors. The study uses the cyclical component of the applied data, followed by unit root and cointegration testing, with subsequent application of the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood technique. The results show both indicators have an effect on restaurant performance, where VIX has an impact on the current, expected, and overall restaurant performance, while the CCI’s influence is only partial (current performance). Policy-makers and planners could benefit from anticipating features of indicators to assess and steer the future performance of the restaurant industry.     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

Does foreign direct investment expand the capability set in the host economy? A sectoral analysis

Most empirical studies examining the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development use aggregate monetary-based measures such as GDP or TFP growth as indicators for development. We deviate from this approach and use instead the recently developed economic complexity index; this measure summarises the complexity of the productive structure of an economy, and its values can be interpreted as the number of capabilities present in a country. These capabilities are units of productive knowledge necessary for the production of goods, and goods differ in the number of necessary capabilities. Furthermore, we use sectoral FDI data to take differences between sectors of an economy into account, since the number of necessary capabilities also varies between the sectors. In our empirical analysis, covering 63 developing and developed countries over the period 2005–14, we find that FDI in the tertiary sector has a statistically significant and robust positive effect on the number of capabilities, whereas FDI in the primary and secondary sectors generally does not increase the capability set of an economy.     

美国城市公园评价体系的内容、应用 及启示——以ParkScore指数为例

中国快速城镇化的过程伴随着各类城市绿地公园的 规划建设。对城市公园系统综合质量的科学评价关系着城市开 放空间品质的提升、居民生活质量的提高和公共服务设施规划 水平的进步。以ParkScore指数为例，对美国城市公园综合 评价系统的建设过程、评价标准和指标体系进行系统介绍和特 征评述，总结分析其在城市规划实践和研究中的应用，提出我 国应完善城市空间数据库建设、引入以人为本的评价指标和加 强指标体系建立过程的有效性等建议措施，旨在为我国城市公 园综合评价系统建设提供借鉴。     

基于层次分析法的我国海水淡化开发利用潜力评价方法研究

海水淡化是缓解沿海地区水资源短缺的重要手段。利用层次分析法，开展了我国海水淡化开发利用潜力评价方法研究。从政策因素、社会经济因素、技术条件3个方面，构建了我国海水淡化开发利用潜力评价指标体系，对各指标影响作用权重进行了计算。以全国11个沿海省(区、市)为研究目标，对其海水淡化开发利用潜力进行了评价。研究结果表明，我国各沿海省(区、市)开发利用海水淡化的潜力由大到小分别是:河北、浙江、山东、天津、江苏、辽宁、海南、广东、广西、上海、福建。最后，结合影响我国海水淡化开发利用的主要因素，从战略定位、试点示范、财政补贴、自主创新4个方面，提出了进一步推进我国海水淡化开发利用的建议。